NAND is cyclical: higher shipment volume can be overwhelmed by lower average selling prices.
AI server SSD demand is only one part of the business; smartphone and PC demand, inventory and depreciation still shape group profit.
Facts and Current Status
| Item | Fact or Status | How to Read It |
|---|---|---|
| Next earnings | July 31, 3:30 p.m. JST | Company IR |
| FY revenue | JPY2.3376 trillion | FY ended March 2026 |
| Planned annual capex | About JPY470 billion | Next three years |
| Planned annual R&D | About JPY230 billion | Next three years |
Conditions That Could Support the Stock
These are conditions to verify, not forecasts or promises of a price increase.
- NAND selling prices and shipment volume improve together
- Enterprise and AI SSD mix rises
- Inventory becomes healthier relative to sales
- The company reaches net cash
- Free cash flow remains positive after capex
Reasons Not to Buy
The opposing evidence should be checked before relying on the strongest bullish narrative.
- Supply growth pushes NAND prices down
- AI demand misses market expectations
- Smartphone and PC demand remains weak
- Heavy capex precedes returns
- Depreciation and R&D pressure earnings
- Litigation creates losses or provisions
- A post-result break below opening price and VWAP
Bullish, Neutral and Bearish Scenarios
| Scenario | What It Assumes | Evidence to Check |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish | Pricing, AI SSD mix and finances improve | Gross margin and FCF |
| Neutral | Demand growth is offset by investment | Depreciation |
| Bearish | Pricing, inventory and legal risks overlap | Provisions and guidance |
What the Evidence Supports
Current assessment: B-C: High-risk watch. AI SSD growth is promising, but NAND pricing, heavy investment, free cash flow and litigation can dominate near-term results.
Real-time price, opening price, VWAP, order book, time-and-sales data and margin balances were not available when this article was prepared. No fixed entry price or probability estimate is provided without those inputs.
- NAND average selling price and shipment volume
- Revenue mix by end market
- Inventory, net cash and free cash flow
- Capex, litigation and post-result trading
Primary Sources
Related Japan Stock Research
- JR East (9020) Stock: Fare Changes, Inbound Travel and Property Earnings
- Advantest (6857) Stock: AI Chip Test Demand, Orders and Customer Concentration
- Browse all English Japan stock research
- Read the Japanese version
This article organizes public company disclosures and market conditions for informational purposes. It does not recommend buying or selling a security. Prices and trading conditions can change after publication, and investors can lose principal.
References
3- TreasuryDirect (opens in a new tab) U.S. Treasury