Yuan Internationalization and De-Dollarization Progress: The Future of Reserve Currencies

Yuan Internationalization: Current Status

China's renminbi (RMB/CNY) has been steadily increasing its presence in the international financial system as the currency of the world's second-largest economy. However, its internationalization progress remains limited compared to China's economic scale. This "gap" is key to understanding yuan internationalization.

Yuan's Current Position

Metric	Yuan Share	Rank	Notes
International Payments (SWIFT)	~4-5%	4th	USD ~47%, EUR ~23%
Foreign Reserves	~2.5%	5th	USD ~59% still leads
Forex Turnover	~7%	5th	USD ~88% (single-sided)
Trade Settlement	~3%	4th-5th	Rising in China-related trade

While China's GDP accounts for approximately 18% of global output, the yuan's international usage share is far below this. This indicates that factors beyond economic scale are crucial for currency internationalization.

History of Yuan Internationalization

2009: Cross-border yuan settlement pilot begins
2015: Included in IMF's SDR (Special Drawing Rights) basket
2016: CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) full operation
2022 onwards: Russia sanctions accelerate de-dollarization

Dollar Hegemony Structure and Challenges

Understanding yuan internationalization requires first understanding "why the dollar is the hegemonic currency."

Five Pillars Supporting Dollar Hegemony

1. Deep and Liquid Financial Markets

US bond and equity markets are the world's largest and most liquid, enabling safe storage and management of massive funds. This "depth" is unmatched by any other nation.

2. Rule of Law and Institutional Trust

An independent judiciary, property rights protection, and transparent regulatory environment provide investor confidence. This is "soft infrastructure" built over many years.

3. Military Power and Geopolitical Influence

The world's strongest military is the ultimate guarantee of dollar asset safety. Dollar-denominated oil trading (petrodollar) is backed by this power.

4. Network Effects

Because everyone uses dollars, each country uses dollars. This self-reinforcing cycle creates dollar hegemony's inertia.

5. Safe Haven Status

Investor flight to dollar assets during global crises - "flight to safety" - demonstrates the dollar's privileged position.

Challenges to Dollar Hegemony

However, cracks are appearing in this hegemony:

Expanding Fiscal Deficits: US government debt exceeds 120% of GDP
Weaponization of Sanctions: Russia sanctions raised "Is the dollar safe?" questions
US-China Conflict: Motivates China to reduce dollar dependence
Inflation and Credibility: 2022's inflation surge questioned the dollar's store of value function

Dollar hegemony will not collapse overnight, but it is being eroded at the margins. What's important is accurately understanding the speed and direction of this change.

De-dollarization Progress

"De-dollarization" has become a recent buzzword, but what is the reality?

Declining Dollar Share in Foreign Reserves

The dollar's share of global central bank foreign reserves has been declining over the long term:

2000: ~71%
2010: ~62%
2020: ~59%
2023: ~58-59%

The decline is gradual but steady. Increasing are the euro, yen, pound, yuan, and "other currencies."

Trade Settlement Diversification

Non-dollar currency settlements are increasing in specific bilateral trade:

Trading Partners	Settlement Currency Changes
China-Russia	Yuan settlements ~60% (pre-2022: under 2%)
China-Saudi Arabia	Yuan-denominated oil trading begins
India-UAE	Rupee-denominated oil trading attempts
Among BRICS	Expanding local currency settlements

BRICS Common Currency Initiative

BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is discussing creating a common currency or payment system. With the 2024 BRICS expansion (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Argentina invited), this movement may accelerate.

However, concrete progress remains limited, with "expanding local currency trade" more realistic than a "common currency."

Limits of De-dollarization

De-dollarization has clear limitations:

No Alternative: No currency matches the dollar's liquidity and reliability
Transaction Costs: Dollar transaction infrastructure is already established
Political Conflicts: Interests don't align even among BRICS nations
Time Factor: Currency hegemony transitions take decades

Yuan Internationalization Mechanisms

China is strategically promoting yuan internationalization. We analyze its key mechanisms.

Belt and Road and the Yuan

The Belt and Road Initiative is not just infrastructure investment but also an engine for yuan internationalization:

Chinese loans are often provided in yuan
Construction project payments also in yuan
Participating countries need to hold and use yuan

CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System)

CIPS is positioned as an alternative to SWIFT for yuan international payments:

Item	CIPS	SWIFT
Participating Institutions	~1,400 banks	~11,000 banks
Currency	Yuan	Multi-currency
Daily Volume	~400 billion yuan	~$5 trillion
Sanctions Risk	Low (China-controlled)	High (Western influence)

Currency Swap Agreements

The People's Bank of China has signed currency swap agreements with over 40 countries, enabling bilateral trade without dollar intermediation:

Total: ~4 trillion yuan (~$600 billion equivalent)
Major Partners: Korea, Japan, UK, EU, Russia, Brazil, etc.
Uses: Trade settlement, liquidity provision, crisis support

Digital Yuan (e-CNY)

China leads the world in CBDC development. The digital yuan primarily targets domestic payments but could eventually extend to international settlements:

Domestic pilots completed (circulation in multiple cities)
Participating in mBridge project (BIS-led international CBDC settlement experiment)
Can be utilized for cross-border payment efficiency

Barriers to Yuan Internationalization

Yuan internationalization faces several structural barriers. Understanding these is crucial for predicting the yuan's future.

Capital Controls

The biggest barrier is China's maintained capital controls. To function as an international currency, investors need to freely move capital in and out, but China does not allow this:

Foreign investor access to Chinese markets is restricted
Chinese resident overseas investment also restricted
Exchange rate is not fully floating

Chinese authorities recognize this dilemma but prioritize financial system stability, avoiding rapid liberalization.

Insufficient Market Depth

The market for yuan-denominated safe assets (Chinese government bonds, etc.) is smaller and less liquid than US Treasuries:

Market	Size (Est.)	Foreign Holding Ratio
US Treasury Market	~$26 trillion	~30%
Chinese Government Bond	~$15 trillion equivalent	~2-3%

Trust and Transparency Issues

International currencies require trust in the issuing country, but China faces challenges:

Concerns about rule of law and property rights protection
Questions about economic statistics reliability
Geopolitical risks (Taiwan issue, etc.)
Opacity of government intervention

Geopolitical Confrontation

Deepening US-China conflict has complex effects on yuan internationalization:

Western nations cautious about yuan adoption
Meanwhile, countries fearing sanctions show increased yuan interest
Risk of global economic "decoupling"

Investment Implications and Strategy

Yuan internationalization progress is a change investors cannot ignore. We consider appropriate strategies.

Yuan Positioning in Portfolios

Reasons to Consider Holding

Diversification perspective: Exposure to world's second-largest economy currency
Long-term yuan appreciation potential (economic growth, internationalization progress)
Reducing concentration risk in dollar assets

Reasons for Caution

Capital controls limit access and liquidity risk
Policy risk (FX intervention, regulatory changes)
Geopolitical risk (US-China relations deterioration)

Yuan Access Methods

Offshore Yuan (CNH): Yuan traded in Hong Kong; relatively accessible
Yuan-Denominated ETFs: ETFs investing in Chinese stocks or bonds
FX Trading: Currency pairs like USD/CNH
Dim Sum Bonds: Yuan-denominated bonds issued in Hong Kong

Investment Decision Points

Scenario	Yuan Impact	Investment Strategy
Accelerated De-dollarization	Yuan demand up, appreciation	Long yuan position
US-China Conflict Intensification	Short-term decline, long-term uncertainty	Position reduction, hedge
Chinese Economic Slowdown	Downward pressure	Cautious stance
Capital Control Relaxation	Increased volatility then appreciation	Gradual accumulation

Investing in yuan is both a "bet on the Chinese economy" and a "bet on changes in the international monetary system." It's important to evaluate risks and opportunities from both perspectives.

Future Scenarios for Reserve Currencies

Finally, we present multiple scenarios for the future of the international monetary system.

Scenario 1: Dollar Hegemony Continues (Most Likely)

The dollar maintains overwhelming reserve currency status. Yuan share expands gradually but doesn't exceed 10%.

Probability: 60-70%
Investment Implication: Continue centering portfolios on dollar assets

Scenario 2: Multipolar Currency System

Transition to a multipolar system where dollar, euro, and yuan each have their spheres of influence. Different primary currencies by region.

Probability: 20-30%
Investment Implication: Regional currency exposure management becomes important

Scenario 3: Yuan Ascendance

Yuan grows to match the dollar as an international currency. Requires China to remove capital controls and implement institutional reforms.

Probability: 5-10% (low in short term)
Investment Implication: Significant shift to yuan assets

Scenario 4: Digital Currency Transformation

CBDCs and cryptocurrencies transform the existing currency system. Relative importance of national currencies declines.

Probability: 5-10%
Investment Implication: Understanding and investing in digital assets becomes important

Yuan internationalization and de-dollarization movements are important themes that could impact investor portfolios over the long term. While dollar hegemony remains unshaken in the short term, changes are certainly occurring at the margins. Prudent investors should monitor these changes while implementing appropriate diversification and risk management. Changes in currency systems don't happen suddenly but progress over decades. It's important to maintain this long-term perspective while making daily investment decisions.